Winter is Coming for OpenAI
Oct 22, 2024·
·
2 min read
muckrAIkers
Brace yourselves, winter is coming for OpenAI - atleast, that's what we think. In this episode we look at OpenAI's recent massive funding round and ask "why would anyone want to fund a company that is set to lose net 5 billion USD for 2024?" We scrape through a whole lot of muck to find the meaningful signals in all this news, and there is a lot of it, so get ready!
Chapters
00:00:00 ❙ Intro
00:00:00 ❙ Intro
00:00:28 ❙ Hot off the press
00:02:43 ❙ Why listen?
00:06:07 ❙ Why might VCs invest?
00:15:52 ❙ What are people saying
00:23:10 ❙ How is OpenAI making money?
00:28:18 ❙ Is AI hype dying?
00:41:08 ❙ Why might big companies invest?
00:48:47 ❙ Concrete impacts of AI
00:52:37 ❙ Outcome 1: OpenAI as a commodity
01:04:02 ❙ Outcome 2: AGI
01:04:42 ❙ Outcome 3: best plausible case
01:07:53 ❙ Outcome 1*: many ways to bust
01:10:51 ❙ Outcome 4+: shock factor
01:12:51 ❙ What’s the muck
01:21:17 ❙ Extended outro
Links
- Reuters article - OpenAI closes $6.6 billion funding haul with investment from Microsoft and Nvidia
- Goldman Sachs report - GenAI: Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit
- Apricitas Economics article - The AI Investment Boom
- Discussion of “The AI Investment Boom” on YCombinator
- State of AI in 13 Charts
- Fortune article - OpenAI sees $5 billion loss in 2024 and soaring sales as big ChatGPT fee hikes planned, report says
More on AI Hype (Dying)
- Latent Space article - The Winds of AI Winter
- Article by Gary Marcus - The Great AI Retrenchment has Begun
- TimmermanReport article - AI: If Not Now, When? No, Really - When?
- MIT News article - Who Will Benefit from AI?
- Washington Post article - The AI Hype bubble is deflating. Now comes the hard part.
- Andreesen Horowitz article - Why AI Will Save the World
Other Sources
- Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Foundation Model Transparency Index
- Cointelegraph article - Europe gathers global experts to draft ‘Code of Practice’ for AI
- Reuters article - Microsoft’s VP of GenAI research to join OpenAI
- Twitter post from Tim Brooks on joining DeepMind
- Edward Zitron article - The Man Who Killed Google Search
