The End of Scaling?
Nov 19, 2024·
·
3 min read
muckrAIkers
Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an “end of scaling” for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of “AI”.
Chapters
00:00:00 ❙ Intro
00:00:23 ❙ Hot off the press
00:01:49 ❙ The end of scaling
00:10:50 ❙ "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI"
00:17:19 ❙ The end of quantization
00:25:18 ❙ Hedging
00:29:41 ❙ The end of upwards mobility
00:33:12 ❙ How to grow an economy
00:38:14 ❙ Transformative & disruptive tech
00:49:19 ❙ Finding the meaning
00:56:14 ❙ Bursting AI bubble and Trump
01:00:58 ❙ The muck
00:00:23 ❙ Hot off the press
00:01:49 ❙ The end of scaling
00:10:50 ❙ "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI"
00:17:19 ❙ The end of quantization
00:25:18 ❙ Hedging
00:29:41 ❙ The end of upwards mobility
00:33:12 ❙ How to grow an economy
00:38:14 ❙ Transformative & disruptive tech
00:49:19 ❙ Finding the meaning
00:56:14 ❙ Bursting AI bubble and Trump
01:00:58 ❙ The muck
Links
- The Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows
- Bloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI
- Reuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitations
- Paper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for Precision
- Tim Dettmers Tweet on “Scaling Laws for Precision”
Empirical Analysis
- WU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions
- IMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
- NBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences
- Pew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?
Forecasting
- NBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
- NBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AI
- IMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
- Submission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely
Externalities and the Bursting Bubble
- NBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
- Clayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation
- The New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.
- Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst
On Productization
- Palantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defense
- Ars Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir deal
- OpenAI press release on partnering with Condé Nast
- Candid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIA
- E2B
- Stripe agents
- Robopair
Other Sources
- CBS News article - Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: “Human … Please die.”
- Biometric Update article - Travelers to EU may be subjected to AI lie detector
- Techcrunch article - OpenAI’s tumultuous early years revealed in emails from Musk, Altman, and others
- Richard Ngo Tweet on leaving OpenAI
